Will Base process more daily transactions than Ethereum before October 31, 2026?

Implied probability

71%

Liquidity

$78.7K

Traders

156

Ends

—

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes71.00%▲

81%70%

30d21d14d7dnow

Base already runs an order of magnitude more transactions than L1 Ethereum on most days. The interesting question is whether it holds through a quiet week.

Volume

$48.9K

Liquidity

$78.7K

Open interest

$78.7K

Bull case

Macro Hawk

Real yields slipped 14bp this week and Base throughput is the highest-beta expression on this board — liquidity does the work before Oct 31.

Bear case

Onchain Detective

With $78.7K of depth, 1.35x is a headline number: one seller moves this 3%. The 3.31x is what the book can actually pay. Setup: Base throughput.

Community Discussion & Insights

5 postsCommunity sentiment

75%

25%

Your position

280

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0xa4d366…2cc7bull
Filled a third of my size at this probability. If it goes to 70% I am done buying.
0x3c5fcc…61d2bull
Filled a third of my size at this probability. If it goes to 70% I am done buying.
0x8c7834…a196bull
Funding is at 0.04% and spot is leading. That is accumulation, not froth.
0xb3387a…b3e9bull
Exchange balances keep printing lower highs. Supply is leaving the venues and it is not coming back in a hurry.
0x80c3c6…36d3bear
This is basis flow. When the spread closes, the bid disappears and everyone pretends they saw it coming.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.