Getting Started
Overview & Vision
What a binary prediction market is, and why settlement is the only thing that matters.
Prediction Arena is a two-sided prediction market for binary questions. Every market has exactly two outcomes — Yes and No. Liquidity from both sides is pooled; when the market resolves, the winning side splits the entire net pool pro-rata by their stake.
The protocol is deployed on Base Mainnet and settles in native USDC (6 decimals). There is no wrapper token, no share NFT, and no synthetic exposure: your USDC goes into the pool, and the pool pays out directly.
Why pari-mutuel instead of an order book
An order book needs market makers and inventory risk. A pari-mutuel pool needs neither: the implied probability of an outcome is simply that side's share of the pool, and the payout multiple is total net pool divided by that side. This makes the market work from the very first deposit, which matters for long-tail questions.
- Implied probability = side liquidity / total liquidity
- Payout multiple = total net pool / side net pool
- Fees are taken per ticket and escrowed per market — they never enter the pool
- Resolution is written on-chain as a bytes32 evidence hash, so every settlement is auditable after the fact
What this protocol is not
It is not a decentralised oracle. The operator is the oracle at this stage (Phase 1), with a permissionless escape hatch if the operator disappears. Phase 3 replaces the operator with an on-chain resolution market — see Oracle & Settlement Roadmap.
Deployment
Prediction Arena
0x108D5CDC23123Fa97929Cf197151fb9dc29A5D93
Base Mainnet · chainId 8453 · verified source
| Platform fee | 4.00% of every stake, escrowed per market |
| Referral share | 30% of the fee (= 1.2% of stake) |
| Minimum ticket | 5 USDC |
| Per-ticket cap | max(20% of the lighter side, 50 USDC) |
| Emergency refund delay | 30 days after the close time |