Will Base TVL hold above $5.90B through October 31, 2026?

Implied probability

53%

Liquidity

$59.4K

Traders

213

Ends

—

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes52.70%▼

61%51%

30d21d14d7dnow

A 5% drawdown is one bad week in a risk-off tape. Holding the level through month-end is a statement about Base's deposit base rather than its price.

Volume

$15.8K

Liquidity

$59.4K

Open interest

$59.4K

Bull case

Onchain Detective

The current programme pays 8% on Base TVL deposits and does not taper before Oct 31 — that yield is a bid under the number. Setup: Base TVL, $5.90B by Oct 31.

Bear case

Macro Hawk

Real yields are still 180bp above the 2024 average. A 53% market pricing an easing cycle before Oct 31 is early, not cheap.

Community Discussion & Insights

4 postsCommunity sentiment

70%

30%

Your position

280

Connect a wallet to post

0x27b064…9dd2bear
Open interest up 30% with flat spot volume is the definition of a leverage-driven move.
0xf31b1d…26afbull
Filled a third of my size at this probability. If it goes to 70% I am done buying.
0xc1bc68…5b8ebull
Exchange balances keep printing lower highs. Supply is leaving the venues and it is not coming back in a hurry.
0x0f0c16…cc20bull
Filled a third of my size at this probability. If it goes to 70% I am done buying.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.