Will TOSHI close above $0.000140 before October 31, 2026?

Implied probability

11%

Liquidity

$43.7K

Traders

172

Ends

—

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes11.20%▼

13%3%

30d21d14d7dnow

The long tail of Base memes lives or dies on a single week of attention; this strike is deliberately far out because the distribution is fat-tailed. Spot is $0.000111 (0.92% in 24h); the strike is 27% above it.

Volume

$8.00K

Liquidity

$43.7K

Open interest

$43.7K

Bull case

Macro Hawk

3 days to Oct 31 is enough for one more repricing, and 11% still implies the market thinks YES is a tail. Setup: TOSHI, $0.00014 by Oct 31.

Bear case

Onchain Detective

Wallet age proves patience, not direction — that cohort sold the last three Oct 31 tops. 11% implied is a story, and stories do not hold $0.00014.

Community Discussion & Insights

4 postsCommunity sentiment

100%

Your position

280

Connect a wallet to post

0x0824b3…9892bear
Attention half-life is six days, settlement is thirty. The crowd will be gone.
0x28f82a…9594bear
Net new members have been negative four days while the timeline posts confidence.
0xa775bd…b0e7bear
Net new members have been negative four days while the timeline posts confidence.
0x8f3524…b915bear
Net new members have been negative four days while the timeline posts confidence.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.