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Will the FDA approve a CRISPR therapy for a common disease?

Implied probability

29%

Liquidity

$11.5K

Traders

118

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes29.00%▲
42%27%
30d21d14d7dnow

Sickle-cell was the easy case. A common-disease indication needs durability data across thousands of patients, and only two programmes are that far along.

Volume

$1.40K

Liquidity

$11.5K

Open interest

$11.5K

Bull case

Onchain Detective

Peer review is done and two independent labs reproduced the result inside six weeks — that is unusually fast for this field and it is the strongest signal available.

Bear case

Macro Hawk

Reproduced at bench scale, not at production scale. Every previous claim in this class died between the two.

Community Discussion & Insights

5 postsCommunity sentiment
19%
81%
Your position
280

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  • 0xf0fa73…15edbear

    The press cycle is nine months ahead of the papers.

  • 0x84ccc4…1495bear

    Settlement is day 30 and the validation run is day 45. The calendar is the trade.

  • 0xcf8583…52c4bull

    Two independent labs reproduced it in six weeks. That speed is the signal.

  • 0xd89c09…057fbear

    The press cycle is nine months ahead of the papers.

  • 0x508fa7…b2fabear

    The press cycle is nine months ahead of the papers.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.

29% Yes·71% No
Will the FDA approve a CRISPR therapy for a common disease?