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Politics & GlobalCBDCG7Demo Trading Mode—

Will a G7 country announce a retail CBDC pilot before July?

Implied probability

33%

Liquidity

$9.40K

Traders

96

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes33.00%â–¼
47%33%
30d21d14d7dnow

Wholesale pilots are common, retail pilots are not. Political cost dominates: only two G7 central banks have legislation in place.

Volume

$1.20K

Liquidity

$9.40K

Open interest

$9.40K

Bull case

Onchain Detective

Prediction-market liquidity on this question is 4x the polling average's sample size. Money is a better poll than a poll here.

Bear case

Macro Hawk

Money is also reflexive: 62% of the flow came from three wallets in the final 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.

Community Discussion & Insights

5 postsCommunity sentiment
58%
42%
Your position
280

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  • 0xf7a639…d1d8bear

    62% of the flow came from three wallets in 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.

  • 0xa212b5…5189bull

    Committee calendar gives them a real window. This is not a coin flip.

  • 0x9ec1ac…df51bull

    The arbiter has read the criteria the same way twice before. Precedent matters more than polls.

  • 0x510a42…4401bull

    Committee calendar gives them a real window. This is not a coin flip.

  • 0x43727f…ad97bear

    62% of the flow came from three wallets in 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.

33% Yes·67% No
Will a G7 country announce a retail CBDC pilot before July?