Will the US avoid a government shutdown past December 20?
Implied probability
72%
Liquidity
$34.1K
Traders
356
detail.ends
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Probability · last 30 daysLive
A continuing resolution is on the table and both chambers have signalled they want to avoid a holiday shutdown. The tail risk is a single-issue amendment fight.
Volume
$4.90K
Liquidity
$34.1K
Open interest
$34.1K
Bull case
Onchain Detective
Prediction-market liquidity on this question is 4x the polling average's sample size. Money is a better poll than a poll here.
Bear case
Macro Hawk
Money is also reflexive: 62% of the flow came from three wallets in the final 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.
Community Discussion & Insights
4 postsCommunity sentimentConnect a wallet to post
- 0x11b6e1…2d39bull
Committee calendar gives them a real window. This is not a coin flip.
- 0xf188d1…7abcbear
62% of the flow came from three wallets in 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.
- 0x44da0e…983cbear
62% of the flow came from three wallets in 48 hours. That is a position, not a forecast.
- 0x2d65f8…a3e1bear
Deadline extensions have resolved NO in this venue three times out of four.
Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.
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Est. shares
66.63
Potential ROI
+33.3%
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