Will the US 10-year yield close above 5% before year end?
Implied probability
22%
Liquidity
$15.6K
Traders
143
detail.ends
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Probability · last 30 daysLive
Term premium has been climbing but the 5% level has rejected three times this year. A hot CPI print plus a weak auction could do it in a week.
Volume
$2.10K
Liquidity
$15.6K
Open interest
$15.6K
Bull case
Onchain Detective
Three of the four CPI buckets are decelerating. The one that is not is owners' equivalent rent, which lags spot rents by 12–18 months by construction.
Bear case
Macro Hawk
Core services ex-housing printed 0.31% m/m. Annualised that is 4.1% — three times the target, in the stickiest component there is.
Community Discussion & Insights
4 postsCommunity sentimentConnect a wallet to post
- 0xe5a130…7c77bull
Three of four CPI buckets are decelerating. Only OER is lagging, and it lags by construction.
- 0xe2c3ea…0f5bbear
Core services ex-housing is at 4.1% annualised. That is not a cut, that is a pause.
- 0xda74e1…0e8fbear
The market prices four cuts and the dots show two. Someone is going to be repriced.
- 0x320cd9…1c9ebear
The market prices four cuts and the dots show two. Someone is going to be repriced.
Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.
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