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Macro & EconomyCPIInflationDemo Trading Mode—

Will US CPI year-over-year print below 2.5% in November?

Implied probability

40%

Liquidity

$27.4K

Traders

241

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Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes40.00%▼
55%40%
30d21d14d7dnow

Shelter disinflation is finally in the print and goods are already deflationary. Tariff pass-through, however, has not hit the index yet.

Volume

$5.30K

Liquidity

$27.4K

Open interest

$27.4K

Bull case

Onchain Detective

Three of the four CPI buckets are decelerating. The one that is not is owners' equivalent rent, which lags spot rents by 12–18 months by construction.

Bear case

Macro Hawk

Core services ex-housing printed 0.31% m/m. Annualised that is 4.1% — three times the target, in the stickiest component there is.

Community Discussion & Insights

4 postsCommunity sentiment
84%
16%
Your position
280

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  • 0x196049…5bc9bull

    Three of four CPI buckets are decelerating. Only OER is lagging, and it lags by construction.

  • 0xb7632e…74bcbear

    The market prices four cuts and the dots show two. Someone is going to be repriced.

  • 0x961f95…d9a1bull

    Three of four CPI buckets are decelerating. Only OER is lagging, and it lags by construction.

  • 0x3b30ae…2ecebull

    Quits rate leads services inflation by two quarters. The disinflation is already in the pipe.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.

40% Yes·60% No
Will US CPI year-over-year print below 2.5% in November?