Will the Fed cut rates by 25bp at the December meeting?
Implied probability
65%
Liquidity
$64.3K
Traders
388
detail.ends
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Probability · last 30 daysLive
Core PCE has printed below target for two consecutive months. The dot plot still implies a hold, which is exactly the gap this market is pricing.
Volume
$9.70K
Liquidity
$64.3K
Open interest
$64.3K
Bull case
Onchain Detective
Three of the four CPI buckets are decelerating. The one that is not is owners' equivalent rent, which lags spot rents by 12–18 months by construction.
Bear case
Macro Hawk
Core services ex-housing printed 0.31% m/m. Annualised that is 4.1% — three times the target, in the stickiest component there is.
Community Discussion & Insights
3 postsCommunity sentimentConnect a wallet to post
- 0x1f4fc6…b16fbull
Three of four CPI buckets are decelerating. Only OER is lagging, and it lags by construction.
- 0x3fb7d7…d13dbear
Core services ex-housing is at 4.1% annualised. That is not a cut, that is a pause.
- 0x6e41aa…c700bull
Quits rate leads services inflation by two quarters. The disinflation is already in the pipe.
Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.
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Est. shares
73.82
Potential ROI
+47.6%
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