All markets
AI & TechOpen SourceBenchmarksDemo Trading Mode—

Will an open-weight model top the LMSYS leaderboard?

Implied probability

58%

Liquidity

$19.8K

Traders

162

detail.ends

—

Share to X

Probability · last 30 daysLive

Yes58.00%▼
62%54%
30d21d14d7dnow

Open weights have been within 20 Elo of the frontier for four months. One more distillation cycle could close it — or a closed-model refresh could reopen the gap.

Volume

$3.70K

Liquidity

$19.8K

Open interest

$19.8K

Bull case

Onchain Detective

Hyperscaler capex guidance was raised again this quarter, +$14B. Transformer supply chain lead times are 40 weeks — the physical build-out is not slowing.

Bear case

Macro Hawk

Capex is not revenue. Eight of ten enterprise pilots we tracked are still in "evaluation" 14 months after signing. The spend curve and the revenue curve are diverging.

Community Discussion & Insights

5 postsCommunity sentiment
70%
30%
Your position
280

Connect a wallet to post

  • 0xf4257d…82f0bear

    Margins are compressing faster than volume is growing. Do the arithmetic.

  • 0xa8add3…a64ebear

    Margins are compressing faster than volume is growing. Do the arithmetic.

  • 0xd4f9e4…8ff6bull

    Builders are the only leading indicator that has never lied to me.

  • 0x945829…31f6bull

    Lead times on the hardware are 40 weeks. You cannot fake a supply chain.

  • 0x177c6c…37b1bull

    Builders are the only leading indicator that has never lied to me.

Community opinions are unmoderated user content, not protocol statements. Nothing here is financial advice.

58% Yes·42% No
Will an open-weight model top the LMSYS leaderboard?